Oscar Predictions 2013

So tonight are the Oscars - the second best night of the year (next to nominations day, of course) - and here are my annual thoughts, likes, and predictions for 2013. What's really exciting about tonight is that many of the major and minor categories are incredibly unpredictable. That's so rare. The main categories that you can't be too sure about are Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and both the writing categories. I feel like the snub of Ben Affleck for a Best Director nomination really threw off a lot of people and my picks this year reflect that off-balanced angst. Expect upsets. I think the Academy is going to really reward Michael Haneke and his foreign film, Amour.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Only One to Win: ARGO
Close, Pero No Cigar: No one.
Happy to Put "Nominated for Best Picture" on the DVD: LINCOLN, LIFE OF PI, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, AMOUR, LES MISERABLES, DJANGO UNCHAINED, ZERO DARK THIRTY, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
If I Had My Way: ZERO DARK THIRTY

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
I'm Crazy, But I Think: Michael Haneke for AMOUR will win.
So, So, Soooo Close: Ang Lee for LIFE OF PI and Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN
Crazy Close Too: David O. Russell for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
No Chance in Hell: Benh Zeitlin for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
If I Had My Way: Michael Haneke!

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Best Chance: Daniel Day-Lewis in LINCOLN
Could Be, Could Be: Hugh Jackman in LES MISERABLES
I Mean, Probably Not: Bradley Cooper in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
No Chance: Joaquin Phoenix in THE MASTER and Denzel Washington in FLIGHT
If I Had My Way: Bradley Cooper would take it home.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
I'm Going With: Emmanuelle Riva in AMOUR
It's So Close For: Jennifer Lawrence in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
She Lost a Lot of Steam: Jessica Chastain in ZERO DARK THIRTY
It Would Be a Major Upset: Naomi Watts in THE IMPOSSIBLE
No Chance: Quevenzhane Wallis in BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
If I Had My Way: Emmanuelle would have a golden man for her 86th birthday.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I'm Completely Guessing With: Robert De Niro in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
It Could Also Be: Christoph Waltz in DJANGO UNCHAINED or Tommy Lee Jones in LINCOLN
Probably Not: Philip Seymour Hoffman in THE MASTER
No Chance: Alan Arkin in ARGO
If I Had My Way: Robert De Niro.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Only Sure Thing: Anne Hathaway in LES MISERABLES
If the Weinsteins Work Their Magic: Jacki Weaver in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Or It Could Be: Helen Hunt in THE SESSIONS
Possibly: Sally Field in LINCOLN
Sorry, but No Chance for the Lovely: Amy Adams in THE MASTER
If I Had My Way: I mean, Anne is the best, but I want Amy Adams to win an Oscar more than I want Shelly DuVall to have a comeback.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
Best Chance: AMOUR by Michael Haneke
So Close: DJANGO UNCHAINED by Quentin Tarantino
If the Controversy Doesn't Affect It: ZERO DARK THIRTY by Mark Boal
Unfortunately Not: MOONRISE KINGDOM by Wes Anderson
No Chance: FLIGHT by John Gatins
If I Had My Way: I'd love to see Wes win.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED
Best Chance: ARGO by Chris Terrio
So Close: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK by David O. Russell
Also So Close: LINCOLN by Tony Kushner
Maybe: LIFE OF PI by David Magee
No Chance: BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
If I Had My Way: David O. Russell

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Best Chance: WRECK-IT RALPH
So Very Close: BRAVE
No Chance: PARANORMAN, FRANKENWEENIE, THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
And I Don't Really Care Who Wins.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
The Only Chance: AMOUR (Austria)
I Heard It's Great: NO (Chile)
No Chance: A ROYAL AFFAIR (Denmark), KON-TIKI (Norway), and WAR WITCH (Canada)
Of course I want AMOUR to win.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Real Quick cuz i'm out of time
LIFE OF PI

BEST EDITING
ARGO

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN I LOVE THIS CATEGORY
LES MIZ

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ANNA KARENINA MOTHER F*&#ERS

BEST SONG
ADELE SKYFALL

SOUND MIXING
SKYFALL
SOUND EDITING
SKYFALL

VISUAL EFFECTS
LIFE OF PI

BEST DOC
SUGAR MAN

SHOT DOC
RACINE

SHOT ANIMATED
PAPERMAN

SHOT LIVE
CURFEW