Early Oscar Predictions: Nominees and Winners for the 85th Academy Awards

So here are my early predictions for next year's Oscar race. I'd like to see Moonrise Kingdom, but I think it will get by on a Best Original Screenplay nod.

BEST PICTURE

ANNA KARENINA

BRAVE

DJANGO UNCHAINED

THE GREAT GATSBY

THE HOBBIT

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER (Winner)

THE SURROGATE

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson for THE MASTER (Winner)

Tom Hooper for LES MISERABLES

Baz Lurhman for THE GREAT GATSBY

Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN

Quentin Tarantino for DJANGO UNCHAINED

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis in LINCOLN

Leonardo DiCaprio in THE GREAT GATSBY

John Hawkes in THE SURROGATE (Winner)

Philip Seymour Hoffman in THE MASTER

Hugh Jackman in LES MISERABLES

BEST ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard in LOWLIFE

Helen Hunt in THE SURROGATE (Winner)

Keira Knightley in ANNA KARENINA

Carey Mulligan in THE GREAT GATSBY

Andrea Riseborough in SHADOW DANCER

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Russell Crowe in LES MISERABLES

Leonardo DiCaprio in DJANGO UNCHAINED (Winner)

William H. Macy in THE SURROGATE

Joaquin Phoenix in THE MASTER

Aaron Tveit in LES MISERABLES

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams in THE MASTER (Winner)

Samantha Barks in LES MISERABLES

Annette Bening in IMOGENE

Sally Field in LINCOLN

Anne Hathaway in LES MISERABLES

Oscar Nominations - Reactions and My Batting Average

The Academy Awards let loose their ever-royal list of nominations today. Here's how well I predicted and what I think of the actual nods:

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

(I went with "The Wrestler" instead of "F/N" because I was very disappointed in the nominated film. I should have gone with my gut but I couldn't predict it out of spite! And I'm very, very, very proud that I am the only person in the universe who predicted that "The Reader" would make it.)

Grade: 4/5

Achievement in Directing
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

(I shouldn't have doubted Van Sant - I'm sorry Jennie! - but Howard? C'mon. I picked Nolan for "The Dark Knight" and Aronofsky for "The Wrestler" instead. Oh well. And once again, "The Reader" pulls ahead!)

Grade: 3/5

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

(I expected these three and called that I would have a perfect prediction in this category - and I was right!)

Grade: 5/5

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

(I picked Franco instead of Brolin in hopes that the Academy realized who was better in the film - but I was wrong. Then I went with Patel instead of Shannon. My mistake.)

Grade: 3/5

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

(Surprises in this category! I only predicted Hathaway and Streep correctly. Sally Hawkins took Jolie's place from last year in the snub category, they pulled a Naomi Watts in "21 Grams" on Kate by putting "The Reader" as Best Actress - and rightfully so - and then Leo snuck into the five.)

Grade: 2/5

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

(Thank God Winslet is going to win Best Actress and no in this category; now it's anyone's trophy, though I hope for Adams or Cruz to win. I predicted four, and then Henson took Winslet's old spot. Good for her.)

Grade: 4/5

My Average: 70%

Jennie's Average: 76.6% - WINNER!

Best of 2008: Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress

Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress

It's very difficult in defining a top 10 list for any category of film. There are so many genres and types of movies released that it's a daunting task for any professional or amateur critic. This year was full of great supporting roles for both male and female, and I could probably list 10 more reasonably - but I'm not.

The women comprising the Supporing Actress category are just that - supporting characters, despite what any award show says. Three movies cultivated such great performances that they have two actresses appearing in the list. Debra Winger and Rosemarie DeWitt shine like a dirty gem in "Rachel Getting Married," both giving realistic performances, particularly DeWitt who should be nominated for an Oscar as Rachel. In "Doubt," Amy Adams impeccably plays Sister James - a role only fate could allow her to have - and Viola Davis stands out in her single, yet moving, scene. And in "The Wrestler," Mickey Rourke's two supporting women, Evan Rachel Wood and Marisa Tomei, aid his journey with eloquent, raw performances.

The four women of the list certainly stood out in their particular films. Taraji P. Henson captivated the character of Queen so perfectly - she was hilarious, heart-felt, and effective in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." In "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," Penelope Cruz surfaces as a woman who can act her heart out. Her fiery vixen of an ex-wife was both entertaining and frightening. Freida Pinto captured the purity, beauty, and romance that was "Slumdog Millionaire." I'd put her on the list for that slow motion shot of her by the trains, smiling. Such a great, simple performance by a beautiful unknown. Finally, Misty Upham drove Melissa Leo's lead character into forbidden dangers in "Frozen River." She gave an incredible performance that was both dynamic and effortless.

Here is the list of the Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress:

10. Debra Winger as Abby in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

9. Freida Pinto as Lakita in SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

8. Evan Rachel Wood as Stephanie Robinson in THE WRESTLER

7. Misty Upham as Lila in FROZEN RIVER

6. Taraji P. Henson as Queenie in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

5. Viola Davis as Mrs. Miller in DOUBT

4. Marisa Tomei as Cassidy in THE WRESTLER

3. Rosemarie DeWitt as Rachel in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

2. Amy Adams as Sister James in DOUBT

1. Penelope Cruz as Maria Elena in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

Doubt

Doubt
Starring Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams & Viola Davis

John Patrick Shanley's 2005 Pulitzer and Tony-winning play, "Doubt, a Parable," comes to the big screen with a smaller name (just drop the "a Parable" part) breathing life into the four-character original. Next to "Hamlet" and "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" Shanley has written one of the best plays of all time - no over-exaggeration. It is perfect. So, it's worrisome to watch a sheer masterpiece on the big screen with big names: Streep, Hoffman, Adams. "Doubt" in the cinematic form is not perfection, however Shanley's screenplay portrays St. Nicholas Catholic School in a way the play only imagined, said with both approbation and uneasiness.

This story is a tricky one to adjust. Philip Seymour Hoffman plays Father Brendan Flynn, a cordial, jolly priest who gains the trust of the community, the audience and his colleagues. This role is thrown into a sticky situation due to Sister Aloysius Beauvier (Meryl Streep), and must be interpreted with much care. Aloysius, the school's principal and Flynn's inferior, speculates that he has involved himself in inappropriate relations with one or more of her students. Hoffman's job is to gain the trust of the audience by seeming... normal. Shanley's script allows for slight creepiness to ooze out of Flynn (i.e. long fingernails and Kool-aid and cookies), but it must be subtle enough for the trust to remain. Hoffman succeeds in this task. Though many doubted the casting for Flynn, this man tackles the role like he always does.

Sister Aloysius is another role that can go terribly in the wrong direction. Honestly, the previews showed her loud, vicious side which should only come out a few times. Streep keeps her character in control, but also gives Aloysius more humanness than expected, which was very pleasing. She did not become an unbeatable force. She has weaknesses, hidden through a clouded window. The Queen of Holloywood illustrates that age will never bring her down, and I hope she earns her third Oscar for this terrific and commanding performance.

As for Viola Davis' Mrs. Miller (formerly known as Muller in the play) and Amy Adams' Sister James, Adams wins by a long shot despite all the critics' opinions. We know Adams can play the innocent, naive character ("Junebug," "Enchanted," and "Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day"), and she delights us one more time as the young nun who is the go-between for Aloysius and Flynn. Though she has been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG, just like Davis, Adams is still underrated. Sister James is the keystone to "Doubt." She represents the audience. She embodies the adjective, "wishy-washy," which may seem like a weakness, but is in fact the essence of this movie. To doubt yourself and others is to think anew. One can either keep on believing the same thing, doing the same routine, remaining innocent, or one can change. James' psychological transformation is beautiful and sad. Because Aloysius brought the woman into a world of doubt and uncertainty, a world she can never revisit, James has new ideas and thoughts - she doubts. We, the audience, are the same as she. We are unsure of Flynn and Aloysius. We follow James, and maybe believe her more above her superiors.

Mrs. Miller, the mother of the black boy supposedly involved with Father Flynn, commands one single scene. Viola Davis arrives as the only character completely sure of themselves, even if everything else is askew. The virtually unknown actress dominates Streep, but only because the script allows her too. The woman is excellent, but overrated with the world of cinema. This woman gave a powerful performance, full of profundity on countless levels, but deserves no award over Adams as the supporting lady.

The play was Shanley's masterpiece, his baby; he had to take control in the film adaptation. Any sane person would have. However, some of his decisions in the adaptation took the story down different paths. It was the slight changes that stirred in me. The lines he cut that should have been savored and a few actions that weren't played out. Perhaps they were minuscule items that bothered him. With polished cinematography and angles that can only be defined as tipsy, the feel of the film serves as excellent and a bit unnerving.

In bringing a jewel of the stage to life on the screen, there will be some stains and spots, however, Shanley and the eternally memorable cast keep "Doubt" priceless.

Grade: A

Golden Globe Nominations - The Rights & Wrongs of My Predictions

So, the Golden Globe nominations were released this morning. In the motion picture categories, "Doubt," "Frost/Nixon," and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" all lead the board with 5 nods a piece, "Doubt" being the only one NOT nominated in a Best Motion Picture category - BOO! Winslet & Streep both land 2 nominations a piece, "Milk" got shafted, James Franco ended up nominated for "Pineapple Express," Amy Adams proved that Sister James is the heart of "Doubt," and "Tropic Thunder" dominates the VERY tight Supporting Actor category. Yes, "Tropic Thunder."

Here's my predictions matched with who I got wrong and who should be added to the list. Complete list of nominations can be found at http://www.goldenglobes.org/.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
Watch out for: Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road

Wrong: The Dark Knight, Milk, The Wrestler
Add: Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road
Suprised? The Reader! Go read the book!!!
Grade: 2/5


BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Burn After Reading
Cadillac Records
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Watch out for: WALL-E, Tropic Thunder

Wrong: Cadillac Records
Add: In Bruges
Surprised? Nothing really... I'm happy for In Bruges.
Grade: 4/5


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Brad Pitt in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Frank Langhella in FROST/NIXON
Leonardo DiCaprio in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Mickey Rourke in THE WRESTLER
Sean Penn in MILK
Watch out for: Clint Eastwood in GRAN TORINO, Richard Jenkins in THE VISITOR

PERFECT!
Surprised? Obviously not.
Grade: 5/5


BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Adrien Brody in CADILLAC RECORDS
Colin Farrell in IN BRUGES
Dustin Hoffman in LAST CHANCE HARVEY
George Clooney in BURN AFTER READING
Javier Bardem in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Watch out for: Steve Coogan in HAMLET 2, Ben Stiller in TROPIC THUNDER

Wrong: Adrien Brody, George Clooney
Add: James Franco in PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, Brendan Gleeson in IN BRUGES
Surprised? James Franco - WOOOOO!!!
Grade: 3/5


BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Angelina Jolie in CHANGELING
Anne Hathaway in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Kate Winslet in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Kristin Scott Thomas in I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
Meryl Streep in DOUBT
Watch out for: Cate Blanchett in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Melissa Leo in FROZEN RIVER

PERFECT!
Surprised? No way!
Grade: 5/5


BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Beyonce Knowles in CADILLAC RECORDS
Emma Thompson in LAST CHANCE HARVEY
Meryl Streep in MAMMA MIA!
Sarah Jessica Parker in SEX AND THE CITY: THE MOVIE
Sally Hawkins in HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Watch out for: Scarlet Johannsen in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Frances McDormand in BURN AFTER READING

Wrong: Beyonce Knowles, Sarah Jessica Parker
Add: Rebecca Hall in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Frances McDormand
Surprised? Yeah! I thought I was the only one who thought Hall stole the show from Scarlett! Guess I was wrong.
Grade: 3/5


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT
James Franco in MILK
Josh Brolin in MILK
Philip Seymour Hoffman in DOUBT
Robert Downey, Jr. in TROPIC THUNDER
Watch out for: Michael Shannon in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, Liev Schreiber in DEFIANCE

Wrong: James Franco, Josh Brolin
Add: Tom Cruise in TROPIC THUNDER, Ralph Finnes in THE DUCHESS
Surprised? Hell yeah! Tom Cruise?!?! That's f'n awesome. He was amazing in Tropic Thunder. And I was kind of ashamed of having him high in my best list. He might just get bumped up.
Grade: 3/5


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet in THE READER
Marisa Tomei in THE WRESTLER
Penelope Cruz in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Taraji P. Henson in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Viola Davis in DOUBT
Watch out for: Rosemarie DeWitt in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Kathy Bates in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Wrong: Taraji P. Henson
Add: Amy Adams in DOUBT
Surprised? I'm stoked Amy Adams is nominated; though everyone claims Viola has the "baitier" role, Sister James is crucial to the entire story of Doubt.
Grade: 4/5

TOTAL GRADE: 72.5% (at least I passed!)
Jennie's Grade: 57.5% (Sorry, Jennie, I win. lol)

Charlie Wilson's War

Charlie Wilson's War
Starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman & Amy Adams

Mike Nichols (director) swiftly pours us a vibrant shot of comedy and drama in the very first scene. Charlie Wilson (Tom Hanks), naked, relaxes in a hot tub with three naked women and another man. They talk about some movie the one girl's starring in, but Wilson is disinterested; he's only interested in the news on the television - the Soviet Union is taking over Afghanistan. As the story continues, we follow the playboy congressman, a renegade CIA agent (Hoffman) and a Houston socialite (Julia Roberts), who band together and pull off one of the greatest covert missions in history, which eventually aided the dismantlement of the Soviet Union and ended the Cold War. We know Nichols can do drama ("Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" and "Closer"), but I wasn't sure about comedy. However, with his incredible cast - though Roberts is a tad overrated, but still edgy - he knocks down that barrier.

Hanks leads the way through a series of awkward, hilarious situations and also through periods of anguish and loss. It's a perfect mixture. His office is run by bombshell women, all bearing cleavage, save Amy Adams who is Wilson's backbone secretary. She's smart and, though a bit pure, understands Wilson's scandalous ways. Hoffman is a complete lunatic and fits the role to a "T," and Roberts delivers a half-and-half, milked up performance.

There are scenes in "Charlie Wilson's War" that astound us. Emily Blunt plays a blouse-buttoned professional daughter of some not-so-important Texan, and as she sits in Wilson's office, she is disturbed by the sexiness of his office gals. In the next scene, however she is clad in bra, panties and stilettos, in Wilson's suite, with the Washington stud. It's hilarious! Also, as Wilson and Hoffman's Gust Avrakotos team up, trying to gain funds from other countries, the duo use lap dance persuasion tactics to draw the mullah from the countries leaders. Once again, we are dealt a double flavored shot of comedy and drama.

Yet, the truly dramatic scenes in which Hanks and Adams venture to Afghanistan to see the horrible warfare going on there is very touching. Their working relationship is great and nothing is pushed to the limits. It shows Wilson's softer side, never flirting with his secretary or going over her wall.

Though Wilson was able to boost funds from 5 million dollars to $1 billion annually, there is great tragedy in the film, for our government, once the Soviets were out, pulled out of Afghanistan, and as a result, we are now fighting the country we should have stayed to educate.

Grade: A-

Enchanted

Enchanted

Starring Amy Adams, Patrick Dempsey, James Marsden, Idina Menzel & Susan Surandon

This is what Disney is all about: an over the top, fun, well-conceived fairy tale, inching its way into the satire genre. "Enchanted" brings together the worlds of fantasy and reality, digging back to it's old school roots of artistry (similar to the 2-D animation of "The Little Mermaid," "Tarzan," and "Mulan"), creating a great, entertaining family blockbuster.

Beginning with the 2-D animated world, Giselle (Amy Adams), a singing/frolicking/caller of wild animals kind of maiden, wishes to receive "a true love's kiss," particularly from some far-away galloping prince, and of course, he has to be charming. With a troll catastrophe, Prince Edward (voiced by and later played by James Marsden) rescuing Giselle on his steed, and a tomorrow-true-love wedding, Giselle is leading the life she wants. However, when the royally evil Queen Narissa (Susan Surandon) plans to rid the kingdom of the soon-to-be royal Giselle, the young maiden's future life is in jeopardy.

Thrown into a well of mystery, the real life Giselle is engulfed by a world of gigantic buildings, loud vehicles emitting pollution, small people who aren't related to Dopey or Grumpy, and a billboard castle that won't let anyone in. Giselle, in all her trusting and optimistic ways, is in our world. New York City to be exact. Luckily, however, the incredibly pessimistic Robert (Patrick Murphy), a well-to-do lawyer, and his motherless daughter find Giselle. With a good heart and his daughter's yearning for princesses - even if Giselle is assumed to be some nutcase - the family of two take the lost girl in.

In front of a few overly cliche scenes and a horribly digitalized dragon, "Enchanted" attaches itself on the children and the adults alike, especially the immensely intricate acting of Amy Adams. Her Giselle is naive, adorable, lovable, and somewhat neurotic. She also creates princess-like dresses out of any fabric at hand in a single morning. Giselle forms immediate personal bonds with any living being she encounters, striking up a musical number in Central Park, a group of city rats, roaches, and pigeons to do her cleaning up, and a separating couple to be once again happily in love.

I can see this role being passed on by many actresses. Adams picked it up, and now, from a few Oscar Predictions websites, she's being pulled into the top five to be nominated for Best Actress. This is because Adams brings such an enchanting feeling to the role, inviting us in, and taking up her journey from callow maiden to a modern day woman. Adams' Giselle is one of the best performances of the year.

Yet, she's not the only cast member that gets a good word. Her fantasy world fiance, Prince Edward, has just as much heart and primitiveness as she does. Marsden allows his character to never be consumed by the city insanity. He believes that a bus is a dragon, the people are peasants, and this is just another world to conquer. His drive is to one, and one only: to find Giselle. Though he does discover some truths about the world he entered, he never does sway from his own kingdom.

With all the great roles and actors to play them, a great plot, and numerous satirical odes to past fairy tales, "Enchanted" was the most enjoyable movie of the season, and Adams shines so bright - maybe all the way to a shining Oscar.

Grade: B+