Oscar Predictons: Who Will Win?

Tonight the Oscars are on and here are my annual predictions. Also, I include who I would have voted for had I been an Oscar voter.

Best Motion Picture of the Year: THE ARTIST
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Best Actress: Viola Davis in THE HELP
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in THE HELP
Best Original Screenplay: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS by Woody Allen
Best Adapted Screenplay: THE DESCENDANTS by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
Best Animated Picture: RANGO
Best Foreign Language Film: A SEPARATION
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for THE TREE OF LIFE
Best Editing: THE ARTIST
Best Art Direction: HUGO
Best Makeup: THE IRON LADY
Best Original Score: THE ARTIST
Best Original Song: THE MUPPETS
Best Sound Mixing: HUGO
Best Sound Editing: HUGO
Best Visual Effects: RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Best Documentary: PINA
Best Short Documentary: THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM
Best Short Animated Film: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE
Best Short Live Action Film: THE SHORE

* * *

Now, for my fake Oscar Ballot:

Best Picture: THE TREE OF LIFE
Best Director: Terrence Malick for THE TREE OF LIFE
Best Actor: Gary Oldman for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Best Actress: Glenn Close for ALBERT NOBBS
Best Supporting Actor: Nick Nolte in WARRIOR
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Best Adapted Screenplay: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon for THE IDES OF MARCH
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for THE TREE OF LIFE

Golden Globes - Oak Street Predicts the Winners

The Globes are really just for fun. And Ricky Gervais. Sure, they're a meaty precursor to the Oscars, but its really the Guild Awards that lock in votes for the Academy. Tonight, enjoy the booze, but here are my predicted winners nevertheless:

BEST MOTION PICUTRE - DRAMA

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

The Ides of March

Moneyball

War Horse

Who will win? THE DESCENDANTS

But I want HUGO to win.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

The Artist

Bridesmaids

50/50

Midnight in Paris

My Week with Marilyn

Who will win? THE ARTIST

But I want MIDNIGHT IN PARIS to win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR - DRAMA

George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS

Leonardo DiCaprio in J. EDGAR

Michael Fassbender in SHAME

Ryan Goslin in THE IDES OF MARCH

Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

Who will win? GEORGE CLOONEY

But I want MICHAEL FASSBENDER to win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS - DRAMA

Glenn Close in ALBERT DOBBS

Viola Davis in THE HELP

Rooney Mara in THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY

Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN

Who will win? VIOLA DAVIS

But I want GLENN CLOSE to win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST

Brendan Gleeson in THE GUARD

Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50

Ryan Gosling in CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE

Owen Wilson in MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Who will win? JEAN DUJARDIN

But I want RYAN GOSLING to win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jodie Foster in CARNAGE

Charlize Theron in YOUNG ADULT

Kristen Wiig in BRIDESMAIDS

Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Kate Winslet in CARNAGE

Who will win? MICHELLE WILLIAMS

But I want CHARLIZE THERON to win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Branagh in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Albert Brooks in DRIVE

Jonah Hill in MONEYBALL

Viggo Mortensen in A DANGEROUS METHOD

Christopher Plummer BEGINNERS

Who will win? CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER

And, yeah, I'm good with this.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST

Jessica Chastain in THE HELP

Janet McTeer in ALBERT BROOKS

Octavia Spencer in THE HELP

Shailene Woodley in THE DESCENDANTS

Who will win? JESSICA CHASTAIN

Going risky here - and I want her to win. Badly.

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

George Clooney for THE IDES OF MARCH

Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST

Alexander Payne for THE DESCENDANTS

Martin Scorcese for HUGO

Who will win? MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS

But I want WOODY ALLEN to win.

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Artist

The Descendants

The Ides of March

Midnght in Paris

Moneyball

Who will win? MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

And I definitely want Woody to win and not be there to accept. As usual.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - ALBERT DOBBS

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE - RANGO

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - A SEPARATION

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (DRAMA) - BOARDWALK EMPIRE

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (COMEDY) - MODERN FAMILY

BEST MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV - DOWNTON ABBEY

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TV SERIES (DRAMA) - STEVE BUSCEMI

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES (DRAMA) - MADELEINE STOWE

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TV SERIES (COMEDY) - JONNY GALECKI

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES (COMEDY) - ZOOEY DESCHANEL

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR TV MOVIE - DOMINIC WEST

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINI-SERIES OR TV MOVIE - KATE WINSLET

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A SUPPORTING ACTOR (TV) - PETER DINKLAGE

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TV) - JESSICA LANGE

Screen Actors Guild Awards - Predictions!

It's been a long time, bloggers!

I'm updating to predict the nominations that will be released for the 2012 Screen Actors Guild Awards. Here are my picks:

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
THE TREE OF LIFE

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Michael Fassbender in SHAME
Gary Oldman in TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close in ALBERT DOBBS
Viola Davis in THE HELP
Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY
Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Albert Brooks in DRIVE
Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS

Andy Serkis in RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Max Von Sydow in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Janet McTeer in ALBERT DOBBS
Octavia Spencer in THE HELP
Shailene Woodley in THE DESCENDANTS

Tony Awards 2010 - Predictions

BEST MUSICAL

AMERICAN IDIOT

FELA!

MEMPHIS
MILLION DOLLAR QUARTET

Prediction: MEMPHIS

My Favorite: AMERICAN IDIOT

BEST PLAY

IN THE NEXT ROOM OR THE VIBRATOR PLAY by Sarah Ruhl

NEXT FALL by Geoffrey Nauffts

RED by John Logan

TIME STANDS STILL BY Donald Marguiles

Prediction: RED

My Favorite: NEXT FALL

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

FINIAN'S RAINBOW

LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC

RAGTIME

Prediction: LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

My Favorite: A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC

BEST PLAY REVIVAL

FENCES

LEND ME A TENOR

THE ROYAL FAMILY

A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

Prediction: FENCES

My Favorite: A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Kelsey Grammer, LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

Sean Hayes, PROMISES, PROMISES

Douglas Hodge, LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

Chad Kimball, MEMPHIS

Sahr Ngaujah, FELA!

Prediction: Douglas Hodge

My Favorite: ???

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Kate Baldwin, FINIAN'S RAINBOW

Montego Glover, MEMPHIS

Christine Noll, RAGTIME

Sherie Rene Scott, EVERYDAY RAPTURE

Catherine Zeta-Jones, A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC

Prediction: Catherine Zeta-Jones

My Favorite: CZJ

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

Jude Law, HAMLET

Alfred Molina, RED

Liev Schreiber, A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

Christopher Walken, A BEHANDING IN SPOKANE

Denzel Washinton, FENCES

Prediction: Denzel Washinton

My Favorite: Liev Schreiber

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Viola Davis, FENCES

Valerie Harper, LOOPED

Linda Lavin, COLLECTED STORIES

Laura Linney, TIME STANDS STILL

Jan Maxwell, THE ROYAL FAMILY

Prediction: Viola Davis

My Favorite: Viola Davis

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Kevin Chamberlin, THE ADDAMS FAMILY

Robin De Jesus, LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

Christopher Fitzgerald, FINIAN'S RAINBOW

Levi Kreis, MILLION DOLLAR QUARTET

Bobby Steggert, RAGTIME

Prediction: Levi Kreis

My Favorite: ???

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Barbara Cook, SONDHEIM ON SONDHEIM

Katie Finneran, PROMISES, PROMISES

Angela Landsbury, A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC

Karine Plantadit, COME FLY AWAY

Lillias White, FELA!

Prediction: Katie Finneran

My Favorite: Angela Landsbury

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

David Alan Grier, RACE

Stephen McKinley Henderson, FENCES

Jon Michael Hill, SUPERIOR DONUTS

Stephen Kunken, ENRON

Eddie Redmayne, RED

Prediction: Jon Michael Hill

My Favorite: Stephen McKinley Henderson

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Maria Dizzia, IN THE NEXT ROOM OR THE VIBRATOR PLAY

Rosemary Harris, THE ROYAL FAMILY

Jessica Hecht, A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

Scarlett Johansson, A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

Jan Maxwell, LEND ME A TENOR

Prediction: Jan Maxwell

My Favorite: Scarlett Johansson

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL

Christopher Ashley, MEMPHIS

Marcia Milgrom Dodge, RAGTIME

Terry Johnson, LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

Bill T. Jones, FELA!

Prediction: Terry Johnson

My Favorite: ???

BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY

Michael Grandage, RED

Sheryl Kaller, NEXT FALL

Kenny Leon, FENCES

Gregory Mosher, A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

Prediction: Michael Grandage

My Favorite: Sheryl Kaller

Other Predictions:

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL: FELA!

BEST SCORE: THE ADDAMS FAMILY

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY: FENCES

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: AMERICAN IDIOT

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY: COME FLY AWAY

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS: MEMPHIS

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY: IN THE NEXT ROOM OR THE VIBRATOR PLAY

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: LA CAGE AUX FOLLES

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY: RED

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: AMERICAN IDIOT

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY: A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC

Best of 2008: Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress

Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress

It's very difficult in defining a top 10 list for any category of film. There are so many genres and types of movies released that it's a daunting task for any professional or amateur critic. This year was full of great supporting roles for both male and female, and I could probably list 10 more reasonably - but I'm not.

The women comprising the Supporing Actress category are just that - supporting characters, despite what any award show says. Three movies cultivated such great performances that they have two actresses appearing in the list. Debra Winger and Rosemarie DeWitt shine like a dirty gem in "Rachel Getting Married," both giving realistic performances, particularly DeWitt who should be nominated for an Oscar as Rachel. In "Doubt," Amy Adams impeccably plays Sister James - a role only fate could allow her to have - and Viola Davis stands out in her single, yet moving, scene. And in "The Wrestler," Mickey Rourke's two supporting women, Evan Rachel Wood and Marisa Tomei, aid his journey with eloquent, raw performances.

The four women of the list certainly stood out in their particular films. Taraji P. Henson captivated the character of Queen so perfectly - she was hilarious, heart-felt, and effective in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." In "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," Penelope Cruz surfaces as a woman who can act her heart out. Her fiery vixen of an ex-wife was both entertaining and frightening. Freida Pinto captured the purity, beauty, and romance that was "Slumdog Millionaire." I'd put her on the list for that slow motion shot of her by the trains, smiling. Such a great, simple performance by a beautiful unknown. Finally, Misty Upham drove Melissa Leo's lead character into forbidden dangers in "Frozen River." She gave an incredible performance that was both dynamic and effortless.

Here is the list of the Top 10 Performances by a Supporting Actress:

10. Debra Winger as Abby in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

9. Freida Pinto as Lakita in SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

8. Evan Rachel Wood as Stephanie Robinson in THE WRESTLER

7. Misty Upham as Lila in FROZEN RIVER

6. Taraji P. Henson as Queenie in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

5. Viola Davis as Mrs. Miller in DOUBT

4. Marisa Tomei as Cassidy in THE WRESTLER

3. Rosemarie DeWitt as Rachel in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

2. Amy Adams as Sister James in DOUBT

1. Penelope Cruz as Maria Elena in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

Doubt

Doubt
Starring Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams & Viola Davis

John Patrick Shanley's 2005 Pulitzer and Tony-winning play, "Doubt, a Parable," comes to the big screen with a smaller name (just drop the "a Parable" part) breathing life into the four-character original. Next to "Hamlet" and "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" Shanley has written one of the best plays of all time - no over-exaggeration. It is perfect. So, it's worrisome to watch a sheer masterpiece on the big screen with big names: Streep, Hoffman, Adams. "Doubt" in the cinematic form is not perfection, however Shanley's screenplay portrays St. Nicholas Catholic School in a way the play only imagined, said with both approbation and uneasiness.

This story is a tricky one to adjust. Philip Seymour Hoffman plays Father Brendan Flynn, a cordial, jolly priest who gains the trust of the community, the audience and his colleagues. This role is thrown into a sticky situation due to Sister Aloysius Beauvier (Meryl Streep), and must be interpreted with much care. Aloysius, the school's principal and Flynn's inferior, speculates that he has involved himself in inappropriate relations with one or more of her students. Hoffman's job is to gain the trust of the audience by seeming... normal. Shanley's script allows for slight creepiness to ooze out of Flynn (i.e. long fingernails and Kool-aid and cookies), but it must be subtle enough for the trust to remain. Hoffman succeeds in this task. Though many doubted the casting for Flynn, this man tackles the role like he always does.

Sister Aloysius is another role that can go terribly in the wrong direction. Honestly, the previews showed her loud, vicious side which should only come out a few times. Streep keeps her character in control, but also gives Aloysius more humanness than expected, which was very pleasing. She did not become an unbeatable force. She has weaknesses, hidden through a clouded window. The Queen of Holloywood illustrates that age will never bring her down, and I hope she earns her third Oscar for this terrific and commanding performance.

As for Viola Davis' Mrs. Miller (formerly known as Muller in the play) and Amy Adams' Sister James, Adams wins by a long shot despite all the critics' opinions. We know Adams can play the innocent, naive character ("Junebug," "Enchanted," and "Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day"), and she delights us one more time as the young nun who is the go-between for Aloysius and Flynn. Though she has been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG, just like Davis, Adams is still underrated. Sister James is the keystone to "Doubt." She represents the audience. She embodies the adjective, "wishy-washy," which may seem like a weakness, but is in fact the essence of this movie. To doubt yourself and others is to think anew. One can either keep on believing the same thing, doing the same routine, remaining innocent, or one can change. James' psychological transformation is beautiful and sad. Because Aloysius brought the woman into a world of doubt and uncertainty, a world she can never revisit, James has new ideas and thoughts - she doubts. We, the audience, are the same as she. We are unsure of Flynn and Aloysius. We follow James, and maybe believe her more above her superiors.

Mrs. Miller, the mother of the black boy supposedly involved with Father Flynn, commands one single scene. Viola Davis arrives as the only character completely sure of themselves, even if everything else is askew. The virtually unknown actress dominates Streep, but only because the script allows her too. The woman is excellent, but overrated with the world of cinema. This woman gave a powerful performance, full of profundity on countless levels, but deserves no award over Adams as the supporting lady.

The play was Shanley's masterpiece, his baby; he had to take control in the film adaptation. Any sane person would have. However, some of his decisions in the adaptation took the story down different paths. It was the slight changes that stirred in me. The lines he cut that should have been savored and a few actions that weren't played out. Perhaps they were minuscule items that bothered him. With polished cinematography and angles that can only be defined as tipsy, the feel of the film serves as excellent and a bit unnerving.

In bringing a jewel of the stage to life on the screen, there will be some stains and spots, however, Shanley and the eternally memorable cast keep "Doubt" priceless.

Grade: A