2009 Oscar Winners - Who Will They Be?

When everything seems so predictable, do you trust the Academy enough to go along with the crowd? I don't know. I really don't know. In one week, I expect upsets, however, the question is: "where?" I could've played it all safe, but I feel that I'd lose out and kick myself later. I'm going out on a limb in some cases here. I'm very stressed out.

Take note: I will announce who I think is going to win and who I want to win - not to be confused with who deserves it most or who was my favorite.


BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

WHO WILL WIN? Slumdog Millionaire
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Reader
WHO WON? SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

WHO WILL WIN? Sean Penn
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Richard Jenkins
WHO WON? SEAN PENN


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

WHO WILL WIN? Kate Winslet
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Kate Winslet
WHO WON? KATE WINSLET


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger -The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

WHO WILL WIN? Heath Ledger
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Robert Downey, Jr.
WHO WON? HEATH LEDGER


BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P Henson - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

WHO WILL WIN? Penelope Cruz
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Amy Adams
WHO WON? PENELOPE CRUZ


BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

WHO WILL WIN? Stephen Daldry
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Stephen Daldry
WHO WON? DANNY BOYLE


BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

WHO WILL WIN? Waltz With Bashir
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Class
WHO WON? DEPARTURES


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth and Robin Swicord - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button;
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
David Hare - The Reader
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

WHO WILL WIN? Simon Beaufoy
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? John Patrick Shanley
WHO WON? SIMON BEAUFOY


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter - WALL-E

WHO WILL WIN? Dustin Lance Black
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Martin McDonagh
WHO WON? DUSTIN LANCE BLACK


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

WHO WILL WIN? WALL-E
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? WALL-E
WHO WON? WALL-E


BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

WHO WILL WIN? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Revolutionary Road
WHO WON? THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

WHO WILL WIN? Slumdog Millionaire
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WHO WON? SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

WHO WILL WIN? The Dark Knight
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Wanted
WHO WON? SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

WHO WILL WIN? WALL-E
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Iron Man
WHO WON? THE DARK KNIGHT


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
Defiance - James Newton Howard
Milk - Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahman
WALL-E - Thomas Newman

WHO WILL WIN? AR Rahman
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? AR Rahman
WHO WON? AR RAHMAN


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Down To Earth from WALL-E - Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahman and Gulzar
O Saya from Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

WHO WILL WIN? Jai Ho
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? O Saya
WHO WON? JAI HO


BEST COSTUME
Australia
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

WHO WILL WIN? The Duchess
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Duchess
WHO WON? THE DUCHESS


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters At The End Of The World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

WHO WILL WIN? Man on Wire
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Man on Wire
WHO WON? MAN ON WIRE


BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From The Balcony Of Room 306

WHO WILL WIN? The Witness
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Smile Pinki
WHO WON? SMILE PINKI


BEST FILM EDITING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

WHO WILL WIN? Slumdog Millionaire
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Milk
WHO WON? SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


BEST MAKE-UP
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

WHO WILL WIN? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WHO WON? THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON


BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

WHO WILL WIN? Presto
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Lavatory - Lovestory
WHO WON? LA MAISON EN PETITS CUBES


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Auf Der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon On The Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

WHO WILL WIN? Toyland
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? The Pig
WHO WON? TOYLAND


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

WHO WILL WIN? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WHO DO I WANT TO WIN? Iron Man
WHO WON? THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON


Dane's Total = 18/24 = 75%
Jennie's Total = 19/24 = 79% <--- WINNER

The Films & Grades of 2008

Before I go ahead with my list of films and grades of 2008, I want to acknowledge Keira Knightley for her excellent performance in "The Duchess." If I could redo my Best Actress list, she would be #7, after Michelle Williams, knocking out Cate Blanchett.

Like I said before, I think 2008 was one of the best years on cinema of my life (c. 1985) and so, I tried to be harsh for the first 11 months, but I saw so many amazing movies in December and January that I can't help but give away A's like candy. Anyways, here are all the movies I've seen of '08 according to grade and in alphabetical order from there on out.


A+

Doubt
Let the Right One In
Slumdog Millionaire


A

The Dark Knight
Man on Wire
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
WALL-E
Wendy and Lucy
The Wrestler


A-

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Iron Man
The Reader
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor


B+

The Counterfeiters
The Duchess
Funny Games
Paranoid Park
Pineapple Express
Revolutionary Road
Snow Angels
Transsiberian
The Wackness


B

Appaloosa
Australia
Changeling
The Fall
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Hamlet
Stop-Loss
Tropic Thunder
Zack and Miri Make a Porno


B-

Burn After Reading
Eagle Eye
Frost/Nixon
Get Smart
Hancock
Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The Strangers


C+

Bolt
Marley & Me
Nick & Nora's Infinite Playlist
Quantum of Solace
The Ruins
Smart People
Wanted


C

The Happening
The Incredible Hulk
Mamma Mia!
The Other Boleyn Girl
Saw V
Untraceable


C-

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
Step Brothers


D+

Role Models
The Tracey Fragments


D

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian


D-

The Love Guru
Yes Man


F

Speed Racer

Oscar Nominations - Reactions and My Batting Average

The Academy Awards let loose their ever-royal list of nominations today. Here's how well I predicted and what I think of the actual nods:

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

(I went with "The Wrestler" instead of "F/N" because I was very disappointed in the nominated film. I should have gone with my gut but I couldn't predict it out of spite! And I'm very, very, very proud that I am the only person in the universe who predicted that "The Reader" would make it.)

Grade: 4/5

Achievement in Directing
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

(I shouldn't have doubted Van Sant - I'm sorry Jennie! - but Howard? C'mon. I picked Nolan for "The Dark Knight" and Aronofsky for "The Wrestler" instead. Oh well. And once again, "The Reader" pulls ahead!)

Grade: 3/5

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

(I expected these three and called that I would have a perfect prediction in this category - and I was right!)

Grade: 5/5

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

(I picked Franco instead of Brolin in hopes that the Academy realized who was better in the film - but I was wrong. Then I went with Patel instead of Shannon. My mistake.)

Grade: 3/5

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

(Surprises in this category! I only predicted Hathaway and Streep correctly. Sally Hawkins took Jolie's place from last year in the snub category, they pulled a Naomi Watts in "21 Grams" on Kate by putting "The Reader" as Best Actress - and rightfully so - and then Leo snuck into the five.)

Grade: 2/5

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

(Thank God Winslet is going to win Best Actress and no in this category; now it's anyone's trophy, though I hope for Adams or Cruz to win. I predicted four, and then Henson took Winslet's old spot. Good for her.)

Grade: 4/5

My Average: 70%

Jennie's Average: 76.6% - WINNER!

Dane's Oscar Predictions

So, that time of year has arrived, when everyone (well, those of you who are into film awards) take a guess as to what 5 nominations per category the Academy will put forth as the best of the year. In predicting, one takes into account what other people say, reviews, precursor awards, and, most importantly, the surprise Oscar nods. Without further ado, here are my somewhat ballsy predictions for this year's Academy Awards (released on Thursday):

Note: Italicized predictions are ones that I predicted last March and have decided to stick with.

BEST PICTURE

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

MILK

THE READER

THE WRESTLER

I feel very, very, very, unsure about these predictions. Why? Because other than "Slumdog" I have NO IDEA who is going to be nominated, and - it seems - neither does anyone else! "Ben Butt" is too epic and beautiful for the Academy to let go, so I think that's in definitely too, but the other three are toss ups. I chose "Milk" because of it's political content in a very political time. "The Wrestler" for it's gorgeously paced movement as a film and to put a down-to-earth film on the list. And, "The Reader" because it's about the Holocaust and the Academy really like Daldry. I won't get into the whole, well maybe it's this movie or this movie because I want to seem confident even though I'm not!

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle for SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

David Fincher for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

Darren Aronofsky for THE WRESTLER

Stephen Daldry for THE READER

Christopher Nolan for THE DARK KNIGHT

Going on my "Wrestler" kick, Aronofsky is in. Daldry has been nominated for all of the 2 films he's directed ("The Hours" and "Billy Elliot") so count him in with the five. Boyle, Fincher, and Nolan are complete and utter locks. There you have it! Note: I'm acting wayyyy more confident than I actually am in this category!

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins in THE VISITOR

Frank Langhella in FROST/NIXON

Sean Penn in MILK

Brad Pitt in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

Mickey Rourke in THE WRESTLER

Honestly, I believe that Pitt is the only one on the chopping block. However, there's only 1 or 2 other actors to fill his shoes. I expect this category to be pitch perfect.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

Sally Hawkins in HAPPY-GO-LUCKY

Meryl Streep in DOUBT

Michelle Williams in WENDY AND LUCY

Kate Winslet in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

This category is in the same situation as Best Actor's: Four locks, and then one open space. The only difference is that the open space can be filled by 5-7 actresses very deserving of the nod. I'm going with Williams hopefully. She's the silent trout ready to bit the bait - plus it would be historic to see her nominated with Heath.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey, Jr. in TROPIC THUNDER

James Franco in MILK

Philip Seymour Hoffman in DOUBT

Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT

Dev Patel in SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Franco, in my opinion, was the best supporting actor in "Milk" and will be rewarded with a nomination. Patel is riding the rocket ship that is "Slumdog Millionaire." Downey had too great of a year to get away without being nominated. Hoffman was incredible in "Doubt" and is an Oscar favorite. Then there is Ledger who gave the best performance of the year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams in DOUBT

Penelope Cruz in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

Viola Davis in DOUBT

Marisa Tomei in THE WRESTLER

Kate Winslet in THE READER

There will be snubs any way you look at it in this highly qualified category. I think "The Wrestler" is going to do better than expected with nomination count and Tomei will help that cause. Winslet and Cruz have their feet in the door already. Then there are the ladies of "Doubt." Without a Best Picture/Director nomination, Davis and Adams are sure to be nominated.

Golden Globe Nominations - The Rights & Wrongs of My Predictions

So, the Golden Globe nominations were released this morning. In the motion picture categories, "Doubt," "Frost/Nixon," and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" all lead the board with 5 nods a piece, "Doubt" being the only one NOT nominated in a Best Motion Picture category - BOO! Winslet & Streep both land 2 nominations a piece, "Milk" got shafted, James Franco ended up nominated for "Pineapple Express," Amy Adams proved that Sister James is the heart of "Doubt," and "Tropic Thunder" dominates the VERY tight Supporting Actor category. Yes, "Tropic Thunder."

Here's my predictions matched with who I got wrong and who should be added to the list. Complete list of nominations can be found at http://www.goldenglobes.org/.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
Watch out for: Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road

Wrong: The Dark Knight, Milk, The Wrestler
Add: Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road
Suprised? The Reader! Go read the book!!!
Grade: 2/5


BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Burn After Reading
Cadillac Records
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Watch out for: WALL-E, Tropic Thunder

Wrong: Cadillac Records
Add: In Bruges
Surprised? Nothing really... I'm happy for In Bruges.
Grade: 4/5


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Brad Pitt in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Frank Langhella in FROST/NIXON
Leonardo DiCaprio in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Mickey Rourke in THE WRESTLER
Sean Penn in MILK
Watch out for: Clint Eastwood in GRAN TORINO, Richard Jenkins in THE VISITOR

PERFECT!
Surprised? Obviously not.
Grade: 5/5


BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Adrien Brody in CADILLAC RECORDS
Colin Farrell in IN BRUGES
Dustin Hoffman in LAST CHANCE HARVEY
George Clooney in BURN AFTER READING
Javier Bardem in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Watch out for: Steve Coogan in HAMLET 2, Ben Stiller in TROPIC THUNDER

Wrong: Adrien Brody, George Clooney
Add: James Franco in PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, Brendan Gleeson in IN BRUGES
Surprised? James Franco - WOOOOO!!!
Grade: 3/5


BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Angelina Jolie in CHANGELING
Anne Hathaway in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Kate Winslet in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Kristin Scott Thomas in I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
Meryl Streep in DOUBT
Watch out for: Cate Blanchett in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Melissa Leo in FROZEN RIVER

PERFECT!
Surprised? No way!
Grade: 5/5


BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Beyonce Knowles in CADILLAC RECORDS
Emma Thompson in LAST CHANCE HARVEY
Meryl Streep in MAMMA MIA!
Sarah Jessica Parker in SEX AND THE CITY: THE MOVIE
Sally Hawkins in HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Watch out for: Scarlet Johannsen in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Frances McDormand in BURN AFTER READING

Wrong: Beyonce Knowles, Sarah Jessica Parker
Add: Rebecca Hall in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Frances McDormand
Surprised? Yeah! I thought I was the only one who thought Hall stole the show from Scarlett! Guess I was wrong.
Grade: 3/5


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT
James Franco in MILK
Josh Brolin in MILK
Philip Seymour Hoffman in DOUBT
Robert Downey, Jr. in TROPIC THUNDER
Watch out for: Michael Shannon in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, Liev Schreiber in DEFIANCE

Wrong: James Franco, Josh Brolin
Add: Tom Cruise in TROPIC THUNDER, Ralph Finnes in THE DUCHESS
Surprised? Hell yeah! Tom Cruise?!?! That's f'n awesome. He was amazing in Tropic Thunder. And I was kind of ashamed of having him high in my best list. He might just get bumped up.
Grade: 3/5


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet in THE READER
Marisa Tomei in THE WRESTLER
Penelope Cruz in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Taraji P. Henson in THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Viola Davis in DOUBT
Watch out for: Rosemarie DeWitt in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Kathy Bates in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Wrong: Taraji P. Henson
Add: Amy Adams in DOUBT
Surprised? I'm stoked Amy Adams is nominated; though everyone claims Viola has the "baitier" role, Sister James is crucial to the entire story of Doubt.
Grade: 4/5

TOTAL GRADE: 72.5% (at least I passed!)
Jennie's Grade: 57.5% (Sorry, Jennie, I win. lol)