Oscar Nominee Day: Last Year's Predictions, Yesterday's Predictions, & Thoughts

So today marks the best day of the year: the day the Academy releases their nominated films, actors, and filmmakers! It's better than the Oscars themselves. Too predictable. Here, I'm going to revisit my early predictions last March, who I predicted yesterday on my Twitter account, and who actually got the nominations.

BEST PICTURE
So last year, out of the 10 films I foresaw, only 2 were nominated today: War Horse and The Tree of Life. I actually don't think that's so bad! Yesterday, however, I predicted that the Academy would name 8 films (The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Hugo, The Tree of Life, The Help, War Horse, and Moneyball) - which they did - but they added Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close to the list as well.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm really happy about this group (and the new voting system). All are deserving films, but I am especially happy the Academy gave a nod to The Tree of Life which has been snubbed from several awards in the last weeks.

BEST DIRECTOR
From last year, the only director I predicted is Terrence Malick (thank God) and from yesterday, I predicted all five nominees: Terry, Alexander Payne, Michel Hazavinacius (I spelled that without key-studdering), Martin Scorcese, and Woody Allen. I'm really happy, once again, that The Tree of Life and it's uncanny visionary has some recognition coming from the Academy. It's also great to see so much love for Midnight in Paris, which has been building a great run in the last weeks before the announcement.

BEST ACTOR
Umm, so you know that guy that no one knows? That guy from the movie no one's seen? That guy that got NOMINATED FOR AN OSCAR TODAY? Yeah, I went all OakStreet on Oscar's ass and predicted Damian Bichir in A Better Life - WHAT. It's a damn shame (pun) Michael Fassbender was snubbed for this upset, and I'm not too sure Gary Oldman should be in the top 5, but that's how these things go.

From last March, I'd give myself a 1/2 point for predicting Brad Pitt, but for the wrong movie (I said The Tree of Life instead of Moneyball). The other nominees include the leading contenders for the race: George Clooney for The Descendants and Jean Dujardin for The Artist. I'm really hoping Dujardin gets it and he's really gotta hope for a miracle competing against the ever-popular Clooney.

BEST ACTRESS
While I am 4/5 in this category from yesterday's predictions, I was 3/5 from March! I foresaw Rooney Mara, Meryl Streep, and Michelle Williams all to be getting the happy phone calls this morning. TEN MONTHS AGO. That's pretty effing incredible.

Viola Davis for The Help and my favorite, Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, round off the pack. Like Meryl said at the Globes, this year has had so many great performances by females that anyone, in a different year, would've won. Tilda (for the third year in a row, in my opinion) was snubbed a nomination, but Rooney made her way in, which I'm fine with.

Hold it! I'm calling a 3.5/5 prediction from last March! I thought Viola Davis would be in the Supporting Category for The Help. I was on it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yeah, so last year I have no wins to proclaim in this category, and I did pretty bad last night with only 3/5 (Christopher Plummer, Kenneth Branagh, and Jonah Hill). A slight surprise goes to Nick Nolte for Warrior and an extremely suprising arrival for Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

But please, please, please check out the recent tweets of snubbee's Albert Brooks and Patton Oswalt. Oswalt devotes nearly 10 tweets to an imaginary bar hop in which he invites Brooks to join him and other snubbees to drink and be debaucherous.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
What was I thinking predicting two actresses who can't even drive legally? That was last March, but yesterday I scored a perfect 5/5 for the supporting ladies: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain for The Help, Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs and Berenice Bejo in The Artist. I'm liking this list, but I'll LOVE it if Chastain takes home the naked man in a month.

Golden Globe Nominations - OakStreet Thoughts

I didn't have time last night to post my predictions, but here are my thoughts on this morning's announcement of the Golden Globe nominatios.


BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

--- For me, this is a good line up (didn't see War Horse yet), but it's missing two MAJOR films: The Tree of Life and Drive. I could honestly do without all of these movies except Hugo, the one I'm rooting for.


BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn

--- Considering what was nominated in this category last year (Burlesque, Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist, and Red - plus the winner and well-deserved The Kids Are All Right), this is a nice group of films. I'm very excited for Midnight, but I think Bridesmaids is going to take home the Globe. My only problem is that I saw Marilyn last week and had no idea it was comedic nor musical enough to be listed in thie category... Who's been pushing the campaign out there on the west coast???


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis in THE HELP
Rooney Mara in THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY
Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN

--- I like... Haven't seen Dragon Tattoo or The Iron Lady yet, but I'm loving that people are finally on board with Swinton after two years of being missed horribly by awards for her performances in 2009's Julia and 2010's I Am Love. Good thing Marilyn is considered Comedy/Musical; Mara definitely slipped in here due to Michelle William's nomination in the other category. For me, I'm 100% hoping Glenn Close takes this home for her gripping and subtle portrayal of a woman pretending to be a man in an over-criticized period drama.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE
George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. EDGAR
Michael Fassbender in SHAME
Ryan Gosling in THE IDES OF MARCH
Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

--- I could always do with more Michael Shannon love, but Take Shelter just isn't a widely-seen film (though he and co-star Jessica Chastain [who the hell isn't a co-star with her this year?] are receiving a lot of love from national and international critic's awards). I'm glad Fassbender got in there for a seemingly controversial film. But Gosling (while nominated twice) should've been up for Drive.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jodie Foster in CARNAGE
Charlize Theron in YOUNG ADULT
Kristen Wiig in BRIDESMAIDS
Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Kate Winslet in CARNAGE

--- Awesome! Thank god Julia Roberts didn't slip in here like she usually does! I'm loving the two nods for Carnage, which I am dying to see because of its basis on the 2009 play God of Carnage by French playwright Yazmina Reza. I really hope Kristen Wiig win simply because there are no actresses who deserve this from the musical standpoint and she is pure comic genius.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Brendan Gleeson in THE GUARD
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50
Ryan Gosling in CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE
Owen Wilson in MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

--- No Johnny Depp! Wooo! Very good line up here, and now I'm definitely curious to see The Guard. Glad Owen Wilson jumped in there, despite the fact that he's overpowered by a slew of amazing supporting roles in Midnight in Paris. I'd really like to see Gosling take it home even though Dujardin probably will (I still have to see The Artist!)


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Janet McTeer in ALBERT DOBBS
Octavia Spencer in THE HELP
Shailene Woodley in THE DESCENDANTS

--- Two days in a row of snubbing for Vanessa Redgrave in Corionalus doesn't do her well in the long run. I'm really excited for McTeer who derserves the recognition for Albert Dobbs. I really want Jessica Chastain to take home every award for delivering a season like no one has ever come close to. In a perfect world, the Oscars would nominated her across the board:

Jessica Chastain in CORIONALUS
Jessica Chastain in THE DEBT
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Jessica Chastain in TAKE SHELTER
Jessica Chastain in THE TREE OF LIFE

But, it's not a perfect world... Melissa McCarthy certainly got shafted here by Woodley, so watch out to see who is Oscar-nominated next month.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Kenneth Branagh in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Albert Brooks in DRIVE
Jonah Hill in MONEYBALL
Viggo Mortensen in A DANGEROUS MIND
Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS

--- This is possibly the most unpredictable race to the 2012 Oscars. Clearly, Plummer will take home the award and has been diligently nominated in the last week or so. But Brooks, who appeared to be a front-runner has been ignored a few times, then we have Branagh who is pulling ahead rapidly, Hill who is in and out, Armie Hammer who gets notice every now and then, and nwo Mortensen falls into the five out of nowhere. Then there's Max Von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (snubbed for SAGs and GGs) and Nick Nolte for Warrior who got in the SAG slot yesterday. I'll be rooting for Plummer or Brooks here.


BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
George Clooney for THE IDES OF MARCH
Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Alexander Payne for THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorcese for HUGO

--- Woah! Here come the dark horses. Allen and Clooney haven't received much recognition recently, so this is a surprise. They snubbed out Spielberg for War Horse, Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud, and (WHY?!) Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life. I'm really thinking still that Malick will come out with an Oscar nomination. The Director's Guild will have a say in this race, but Malick's work on The Tree of Life is just nothing any of these directors came close to - even Scorcese. So, I'm pulling for Woody here just because he hates these kind of things.